The goal of a Search Planner is to minimize the time required to achieve success while maximizing the probability of success using the resources available.
Probability of Detection (POD) is an estimate of the chances the subject would have been detected if he had been in the area searched.
Probability of Area (POA) is the probability that the subject is in a given area. The Probability of Area is determined in a several ways, but the search and rescue team does not need to concern themselves with probabilities. The search planner will estimate the probability of a subject being in the search area.
Probability of Success (POS) is the probability of success of a search of one of the areas. The formula for determining POS is: POA*POD = POS
We use Probability of Detection for several reasons:
- To predict outcomes of proposed search actions.
- To determine how effective a search effort has been.
- Decide whether to re-search a segment.
- Decide whether to expand the total search area.
- Decide whether to use additional or different resources.
- Defend search actions to higher authorities or in court.
Probability of Detection is a tool used by the search planner and is not a concern of the search and rescue team, but it is important that the search and rescue team understands that there is a reason they are searching a specific area. Too often, I have heard grumblings from a tired and disillusioned search team that they had been sent to the "wrong" area.
A search planner uses tools developed over many years. Probability of Detection is one of the tools a search planner uses.
